CSI & Help Guide CSI & Help Guide

How CSI Works

The Champagnie Statistical Index analyzes player trends, line efficiency, and consistency to identify when sportsbooks have set a line that doesn't match reality.

CSI Scale

The Three Tiers

🔥 HARD FADE CSI 0–20

Strongest Signal — Bet UNDER

The player is significantly trending below their book line. This is our highest-conviction signal with a 65%+ historical hit rate.

  • ✕ Averages far below the line across L5, L10, and L20
  • ✕ Books haven't adjusted — the line is inflated
  • ✕ When FadeParade says HARD FADE, listen
Stephon CastleHARD FADE
SAS | G — Points
Line
12.5
CSI
8
BET UNDER22.4% edge
L5 8.2
L10 9.4
L20 10.1
⬇️ FADE CSI 21–40

Bet UNDER — Player Trending Below Line

Recent performance suggests the player will fall short of their prop. Books may have set the line too high based on reputation. 54%+ hit rate.

  • ⬇ Recent averages below the book's line
  • ⬇ Consistent underperformance across multiple windows
  • ⬇ "Fade the Public" — bet against the hype
Julius RandleFADE
MIN | F — Rebounds
Line
8.5
CSI
31
BET UNDER12.1% edge
L5 7.0
L10 7.4
L20 8.0
🚀 PARADE CSI 80–100

Bet OVER — Player Trending Above Line

Strong recent performance suggests the player will exceed their prop. The book hasn't caught up to the hot streak yet. 54%+ hit rate.

  • 🟢 Recent averages consistently above the line
  • 🟢 High consistency (hitting over in 60-80%+ of recent games)
  • 🟢 The higher the CSI score, the stronger the signal
Jalen BrunsonPARADE
NYK | G — Points
Line
24.5
CSI
87
BET OVER15.2% edge
L5 28.4
L10 27.2
L20 26.1
⛔ NO PLAY ZONE CSI 41–79

These picks are filtered out — the model doesn't have enough conviction to recommend a bet. We only show you picks where there's a real edge. No filler.

How to Read a Pick Card

Card Elements

  • Player Name & Team — Who the pick is for
  • Stat Type — Points, Rebounds, Assists, 3PM, Blocks, or combos
  • Book Line — The sportsbook's set line for that prop
  • CSI Score — 0-100 rating (lower = FADE, higher = PARADE)
  • Tier Badge — HARD FADE, FADE, or PARADE
  • Edge% — The gap between the player's trend and the line

Trend Windows (L5 / L10 / L20)

We weight recent games more heavily to catch hot and cold streaks before books adjust:

  • L5 — Last 5 GamesHeaviest weight
  • L10 — Last 10 GamesMedium weight
  • L20 — Last 20 GamesLightest weight

The hit rate percentage shows how often the player cleared (or missed) the line in that window.

What is Edge%?

Edge% is the percentage gap between a player's recent performance and the book's line. It tells you how far off the books are.

≥10% edge — Strong value. The book is way off.
<10% edge — Moderate value. Still worth a look.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does "Fade the Public" mean? +
Betting against public sentiment. When the majority of casual bettors hammer the OVER on a player prop, the books inflate the line. "Fading" means taking the opposite side — and the data shows it works. Our FADE and HARD FADE tiers are our strongest edges.
How often do HARD FADE picks hit? +
Over 5,400+ graded picks, our HARD FADE tier hits at 65%+. That's our highest-conviction signal and the strongest edge in the entire CSI system. The "nuclear zone" (CSI 6-10) hits nearly 69%.
Should I bet every pick? +
No. Focus on HARD FADE picks first — they're our best edge. Then FADE picks with high Edge%. PARADE picks are solid too. Quality over quantity. Start with flat 1-unit bets until you trust the system.
What stat types does CSI cover? +
Points, Rebounds, Assists, Three-Pointers Made (FG3M), Blocks, Steals, and combo props like Points+Rebounds, Points+Assists, and PRA (Points+Rebounds+Assists).
How is CSI different from other tools? +
We don't just look at season averages — everyone does that. CSI weights recent trends across multiple game windows (L5, L10, L20), analyzes line efficiency gaps between what the book sets and what's actually happening, and measures consistency to find where the books are wrong.
Why don't I see some players? +
We only show picks where CSI has conviction. If a player lands in the 41-79 range (the "No Play Zone"), there's not enough edge to recommend a bet. No filler — only actionable picks.

Pro Tips

🎯

HARD FADE Blocks is Elite

HARD FADE + Blocks (BLK) is our single strongest signal. When we say fade someone's blocks, the data is overwhelming.

🧠

Trust the Model

Don't chase. Don't let bias override the numbers. CSI doesn't care about names — it cares about data. Trust the system, not your gut.

💰

Flat Bets First

Start with 1-unit flat bets until you see the results. Sharp bettors win 53-57% long-term. Discipline beats excitement every time.

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