How CSI Works
The Champagnie Statistical Index analyzes player trends, line efficiency, and consistency to identify when sportsbooks have set a line that doesn't match reality.
The Three Tiers
Strongest Signal — Bet UNDER
The player is significantly trending below their book line. This is our highest-conviction signal with a 65%+ historical hit rate.
- ✕ Averages far below the line across L5, L10, and L20
- ✕ Books haven't adjusted — the line is inflated
- ✕ When FadeParade says HARD FADE, listen
Bet UNDER — Player Trending Below Line
Recent performance suggests the player will fall short of their prop. Books may have set the line too high based on reputation. 54%+ hit rate.
- ⬇ Recent averages below the book's line
- ⬇ Consistent underperformance across multiple windows
- ⬇ "Fade the Public" — bet against the hype
Bet OVER — Player Trending Above Line
Strong recent performance suggests the player will exceed their prop. The book hasn't caught up to the hot streak yet. 54%+ hit rate.
- 🟢 Recent averages consistently above the line
- 🟢 High consistency (hitting over in 60-80%+ of recent games)
- 🟢 The higher the CSI score, the stronger the signal
These picks are filtered out — the model doesn't have enough conviction to recommend a bet. We only show you picks where there's a real edge. No filler.
How to Read a Pick Card
Card Elements
- Player Name & Team — Who the pick is for
- Stat Type — Points, Rebounds, Assists, 3PM, Blocks, or combos
- Book Line — The sportsbook's set line for that prop
- CSI Score — 0-100 rating (lower = FADE, higher = PARADE)
- Tier Badge — HARD FADE, FADE, or PARADE
- Edge% — The gap between the player's trend and the line
Trend Windows (L5 / L10 / L20)
We weight recent games more heavily to catch hot and cold streaks before books adjust:
- L5 — Last 5 GamesHeaviest weight
- L10 — Last 10 GamesMedium weight
- L20 — Last 20 GamesLightest weight
The hit rate percentage shows how often the player cleared (or missed) the line in that window.
What is Edge%?
Edge% is the percentage gap between a player's recent performance and the book's line. It tells you how far off the books are.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does "Fade the Public" mean?
How often do HARD FADE picks hit?
Should I bet every pick?
What stat types does CSI cover?
How is CSI different from other tools?
Why don't I see some players?
Pro Tips
HARD FADE Blocks is Elite
HARD FADE + Blocks (BLK) is our single strongest signal. When we say fade someone's blocks, the data is overwhelming.
Trust the Model
Don't chase. Don't let bias override the numbers. CSI doesn't care about names — it cares about data. Trust the system, not your gut.
Flat Bets First
Start with 1-unit flat bets until you see the results. Sharp bettors win 53-57% long-term. Discipline beats excitement every time.